Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1603 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 1603 · LAX → SFO

departs 7:15 AM PT · arrives 8:39 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1603 · LAX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?