Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1607 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 1607 · LAX → SFO

departs 10:03 AM PT · arrives 11:27 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±0 pts −14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 51% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 10am departures from LAX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1607 · LAX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?