Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1612 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 1612 · ANC → FAI

departs 8:38 PM AKT · arrives 9:42 PM AKT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at FAI more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FAI?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of snow forecast at FAI that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↓ FAI usually runs smoothly

↓ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility9.33333 mi Precip0.02 in

FAI (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1612 · ANC → FAI

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAI?