Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1614 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 1614 · LAX → GEG

departs 7:45 PM PT · arrives 10:15 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GEG?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↑ 7pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at LAX that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GEG

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

GEG (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1614 · LAX → GEG

Odds over time

How late will it get to GEG?