Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1621 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Today

AS 1621 · SAN → SMF

departs 9:47 PM PT · arrives 11:32 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ 9pm departures from SAN are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at SAN that day

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1621 · SAN → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?