Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1810 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 1810 · SEA → ANC

departs 10:14 AM PT · arrives 1:00 PM AKT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±4 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SEA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

ANC (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility9.66667 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1810 · SEA → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?