Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1839 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 1839 · FAI → SEA

departs 12:11 PM AKT · arrives 4:56 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.9 in of snow forecast at FAI that day

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ 12pm departures from FAI are usually not late

Weather at each end

FAI (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.02 in

SEA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1839 · FAI → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?