AS 1860 · PDX → SEA

departs 7:06 AM PT · arrives 8:00 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1860 · PDX → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?