Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 20SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AS 20 · SFO → JFK
departs 7:20 AM PT · arrives 4:08 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 37h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
9%chance · ±2 pts+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.