Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 21 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 21 · JFK → SEA

departs 7:00 AM ET · arrives 10:16 AM PT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±4 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 21 · JFK → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?