Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 222 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 222 · SAN → KOA

departs 9:12 AM PT · arrives 12:15 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to KOA?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9am departures from SAN are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at KOA

↓ Arrivals into KOA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

KOA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 222 · SAN → KOA

Odds over time

How late will it get to KOA?