AS 235 · SFO → PDX

departs 12:08 PM PT · arrives 1:50 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±4 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 235 · SFO → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?