Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Thursday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 236 SCHEDULED

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 236 · PDX → SFO

departs 2:49 PM PT · arrives 4:40 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±6 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ PDX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 236 · PDX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?