Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 237 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 237 · SEA → LIH

departs 6:13 PM PT · arrives 9:25 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±3 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LIH?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Arrivals into LIH at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

LIH (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.67 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 237 · SEA → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?