AS 239 · LIH → SAN

departs 10:44 AM HT · arrives 7:24 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 1.46429 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↓ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at SAN that day

↓ 10am departures from LIH are usually not late

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.09 in

SAN (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 239 · LIH → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?