AS 240 · SEA → IAH

departs 5:35 PM PT · arrives 12:05 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility9.66667 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 240 · SEA → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?