AS 271 · HNL → ONT

departs 1:38 PM HT · arrives 10:03 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ONT?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.5 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ 1pm departures from HNL are often late

↑ Arrivals into ONT at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ONT

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.61 in

ONT (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 271 · HNL → ONT

Odds over time

How late will it get to ONT?