Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 278 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 278 · PDX → LAX

departs 5:37 PM PT · arrives 8:09 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from PDX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ This flight has been late 13% of the time recently

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 278 · PDX → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?