Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 284 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 284 · SEA → FAI

departs 5:59 PM PT · arrives 8:49 PM AKT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at FAI more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±5 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FAI?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.1 in of snow forecast at FAI that day

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

FAI (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 284 · SEA → FAI

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAI?