Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 287 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 287 · EWR → LAX

departs 7:29 PM ET · arrives 10:40 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±10 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at LAX that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 287 · EWR → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?