AS 300 · PDX → MCO

departs 7:00 AM PT · arrives 3:49 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 300 · PDX → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?