Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 307 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 307 · SEA → MKE

departs 6:09 PM PT · arrives 11:59 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MKE?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at MKE that day

↑ 6pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ MKE usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

MKE (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.50 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 307 · SEA → MKE

Odds over time

How late will it get to MKE?