AS 335 · JFK → PDX

departs 5:31 PM ET · arrives 8:27 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 335 · JFK → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?