Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 35 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 35 · JFK → SAN

departs 11:30 AM ET · arrives 2:27 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SAN that day

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 35 · JFK → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?