Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 36SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AS 36 · SAN → JFK
departs 2:15 PM PT · arrives 10:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
31%chance · ±1 pts+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.