Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 400SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AS 400 · SEA → SBA
departs 4:06 PM PT · arrives 6:38 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
20%chance · ±1 pts−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to SBA?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.