AS 416 · AUS → SEA

departs 8:29 AM CT · arrives 10:31 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,033 ft, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.69 in

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 416 · AUS → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?