Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 419 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 419 · MCO → SEA

departs 4:52 PM ET · arrives 8:09 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ 4pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.14 in

SEA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 419 · MCO → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?