Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 420SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AS 420 · SEA → MCO
departs 9:47 AM PT · arrives 6:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
26%chance · ±2 pts−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.