AS 422 · SJD → SEA

departs 4:35 PM MST · arrives 8:56 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJD

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SJD (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 422 · SJD → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?