Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 431 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 431 · ANC → ADQ

departs 6:29 PM AKT · arrives 7:31 PM AKT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at ADQ more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ADQ?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ADQ

↓ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility9.66667 mi Precip0.07 in

ADQ (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 431 · ANC → ADQ

Odds over time

How late will it get to ADQ?