Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 446SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AS 446 · JNU → SEA
departs 12:30 PM AKDT · arrives 3:56 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
19%chance · ±2 pts+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.