Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 458 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 458 · SEA → BZN

departs 8:40 PM PT · arrives 11:19 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±4 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BZN?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ BZN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

BZN (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 458 · SEA → BZN

Odds over time

How late will it get to BZN?