AS 480 · OGG → PDX

departs 11:22 AM HT · arrives 7:33 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PDX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ 11am departures from OGG are usually not late

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 480 · OGG → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?