Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 481 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Today

AS 481 · SJC → SEA

departs 6:45 PM PT · arrives 9:00 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

55% chance · ±0 pts +24 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
38%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SJC that day

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 481 · SJC → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?