Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 484 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Today

AS 484 · OGG → SAN

departs 11:03 PM HT · arrives 7:20 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SAN that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG

↓ 11pm departures from OGG are usually not late

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 484 · OGG → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?