AS 488 · SEA → PDX

departs 12:34 PM PT · arrives 1:28 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ 12pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 488 · SEA → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?