Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 497 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 497 · SEA → MCI

departs 1:30 PM PT · arrives 7:01 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.5 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ 1pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.51 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 497 · SEA → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?