Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 500 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 500 · IND → SEA

departs 5:19 PM ET · arrives 7:09 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ IND usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IND (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 500 · IND → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?