Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 503 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 503 · AUS → SEA

departs 4:17 PM CT · arrives 6:47 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±6 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at AUS that day

↑ 4pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility3.66667 mi Precip1.00 in

SEA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 503 · AUS → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?