Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 517 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 517 · FLL → SEA

departs 6:30 PM ET · arrives 9:59 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at FLL that day

↑ 6pm departures from FLL are often late

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ FLL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

FLL (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.39 in

SEA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 517 · FLL → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?