Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 525 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 525 · SFO → PDX

departs 6:46 PM PT · arrives 8:31 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 525 · SFO → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?