AS 526 · PDX → SFO

departs 7:19 AM PT · arrives 9:16 AM PT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 526 · PDX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?