AS 536 · OAK → SEA

departs 2:08 PM PT · arrives 4:09 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
33%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from OAK are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at OAK that day

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 536 · OAK → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?