Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 539 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 539 · SEA → SJC

departs 5:45 PM PT · arrives 8:00 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJC?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SJC that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SJC (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 539 · SEA → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?