Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 540 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 540 · PDX → AUS

departs 10:30 AM PT · arrives 4:38 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±5 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 1.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility6.33333 mi Precip1.56 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 540 · PDX → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?