Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 550 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 550 · DFW → SEA

departs 8:45 PM CT · arrives 11:05 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±6 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 2.0 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.98 in

SEA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 550 · DFW → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?