Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 559 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 559 · PDX → BUR

departs 5:57 PM PT · arrives 8:18 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 31h before departure

Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUR?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from PDX are often late

↑ Arrivals into BUR at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ This flight has been late 12% of the time recently

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUR (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 559 · PDX → BUR

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUR?