Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 569 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 569 · MSY → SEA

departs 5:19 PM CT · arrives 8:25 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY

↑ 5pm departures from MSY are often late

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ MSY usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.24 in

SEA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 569 · MSY → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?