AS 583 · ORD → SEA

departs 8:05 AM CT · arrives 10:27 AM PT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±4 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
34%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 43% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.74 in

SEA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 583 · ORD → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?